Matthew Knies: Dark Horse Rising

At a Glance

• A New Class of Young Guns
• Comparative View
• Matthew Knies: Dark Horse Rising

A New Class of Young Guns

After spending a few weeks on the Vintage Hockey series, we wanted to return to the present and check in those that are new to the NHL. So, we sampled a group of young guns with at least a full season under their belt. The sampling resulted in 18 players that were mostly in their second season. They represent a diverse cross-section in terms of nationality, age, position, and team – providing some insight into the league’s range of emerging talent.

We found the sample distinguished itself by depth, versatility, and an immediate impact these newcomers are making across the league. This cohort features a blend of solid prospects who are establishing themselves as key contributors.

You can see those players we sampled below.

This emerging talent comes from Canada, the USA, Russia, Austria, Sweden, and Finland. Most are from North America, and the age range is from 19 to 25. The players cover multiple positions, including centers, defensemen, right wings, and left wings – centers had the highest count. No single team is over-represented, though Minnesota, Utah, Columbus and Nashville each have more than one player on the list. Overall, this sample highlights the NHL's international and positional diversity within its younger players, capturing a snapshot of promising talent at early career stages across multiple franchises.

That said, Connor Bedard is the darling of the lot, so we wanted to use him as our talent high bar and see if any of the others can give him a run for his money.

Comparative View

To complete the analysis, we created a simple dataset with two seasons worth of data which we sourced from Hockey-Reference. We cleaned and transformed the data and then ran a quick analysis in R.

We created a set of variables across the two seasons worth of data and compared the cohort across them. These variables are:

• Average Assists per Game (AVG GPG)
• Average Goals per Game (AVG GPG)
• Average Weighted Points per Game (AVG WPGP)
• Average Shot Percentage (AVG SPCT)
• Average Plus Minus (AVG PLUS MINUS)

We drew the above from two seasons of data and weighted the Points per Game using Games Played (given higher variability in total games played across players and we're still early in the 2024-2025 season). The result was a heatmap view of each of the players – in this case sorted by AVG WPGP – along with their AVG PLUS MINUS.

Little surprise that Connor Bedard topped the list. But when comparing Bedard to the other players on the list, we took note of a few things.

• Bedard stands out with the highest AVG WPGP at 0.455, making him the most productive player in terms of total points (his playmaking through AVG APG boosts his numbers). His AVG GPG of 0.255 is also relatively high, although not the highest in this list. Marco Rossi and Akil Thomas come in higher.
• Bedard’s AVG SPCT was a moderate 8.25 and reflects average efficiency in terms of converting shots to goals compared to others like Matthew Knies (17.45) and Akil Thomas (20.8), who have significantly higher shot percentages.
• Bedard has a low AVG PLUS MINUS rating at -24.5, indicating he’s often on the ice when goals are scored against his team. This was likely a reflection of Chicago's poor performance last season, which led to a higher goals against than many other teams in the league, in combination with his higher ice time (so facing opponents' top lines). This stands in contrast to other players who were in the positive column.
• Some lower-ranked players, such as Akil Thomas and Josh Doan, have a high AVG SPCT but lower AVG WPGP. This suggests they may play specialized roles or see fewer overall opportunities than Bedard, who is likely deployed in a high-impact role with more shooting opportunities.
• Defensemen like Brock Faber and Luke Hughes exhibit lower AVG APG and AVG GPG, which aligns with the typical responsibilities of defensive players. Faber’s high AVG PLUS MINUS (+3.5) and decent AVG SPCT (8.5) suggest effective play in a support role without requiring high goal-scoring stats.

However, there were some other players that we liked on the list. For example, Marco Rossi has a consistency about him as does Connor Zary. And while a bit less consistent across his production statistics, Matthew Knies was higher on the AVG GPG, really solid on his AVG SPCT (see chart below) and had the second-highest AVG PLUS MINUS. So, he shoots, converts and is on a line-up that drives production.

If you plot the AVG APG against each player's distilled time on ice, you get the below view. Because we started to like what we saw in Knies, we've called him out here versus Bedard, so we could get a sense for their comparative playmaking ability. Bedard is clearly out in front here for playmaking (as measured by assist production).

However, when you evaluate for AVG GPG and time on ice, Knies comes out in front of all players – including Bedard, indicating he has the ability to close on his goals.

For these reasons, we think Matthew Knies can give Bedard a run for his money and in this edition is our dark horse rising.

So, who is Matthew Knies?

Matthew Knies: Dark Horse Rising

Matthew Knies, born on October 17, 2002, in Phoenix, Arizona, and currently plays for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He grew up in Phoenix, where he developed a passion for the sport from a young age. His parents, Miroslav and Michaela Knies, immigrated to the United States from Slovakia before his birth, bringing with them a rich hockey culture that influenced Matthew's early development. He also has an older brother, Phillip, who played collegiate hockey for Miami University and Bentley University. (Matthew is fluent in Slovak.)

Knies honed his skills with the Tri-City Storm in the USHL, where he played two full seasons, after which he committed to the University of Minnesota, joining the Golden Gophers for the 2021–22 season. In his freshman year, he tallied 10 goals and 17 assists in 29 games, leading all freshmen on the team. His performance earned him a unanimous selection to the Big Ten All-Freshman Team and a nomination as a finalist for the Big Ten Freshman of the Year award.

In his sophomore season (2022–23), Knies elevated his game, scoring 21 goals and 21 assists in 40 games. He was honored as the Big Ten Player of the Year and was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award. His contributions were instrumental in leading the Golden Gophers to the national championship game at the 2023 NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey Tournament.

On April 9, 2023, Knies signed a three-year, entry-level contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He made his NHL debut shortly thereafter and quickly made an impact during the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, assisting on the series-clinching goal in the first round and scoring his first NHL goal in the second round. His early professional performances have been promising, indicating a solid future ahead.

Standing at 6'3" and weighing 210 pounds, Knies possesses the physicality typical of a power forward. His ability to protect the puck and engage in physical play makes him a formidable presence on the ice. Despite his size, he demonstrates finesse and agility, allowing him to navigate through defenses effectively.

Knies has shown significant offensive capabilities, contributing both in goal-scoring and playmaking. His performance in the 2024-25 season, including a notable goal against the Boston Bruins, highlights his ability to impact games offensively. The Daily Faceoff characterized Knies as a "fantasy brought to life" for Leaf fans with the following:

"...a big, strong, young power forward, parked in the crease of a divisional rival, imposing his will, screening the opposing goaltender and perfectly timing a tip-in. That was Matthew Knies converting on the power play against the Boston Bruins in Toronto’s 4-0 win Tuesday night, continuing to establish himself as the net-front dominator the franchise has craved."

His versatility enables him to play multiple forward positions, adapting to various line combinations and strategies. Knies' high hockey IQ allows him to make smart decisions on the ice, contributing to both offensive plays and defensive responsibilities.

Since being drafted 57th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2021, Knies has shown continuous development. His progression from a promising prospect to a key player in the NHL underscores his potential and work ethic. The Hockey Writers wrote this about his development as a prospect:

"As he continues to take strides with his development, Knies is showing why the Maple Leafs drafted him as he continues to show tremendous upside as a prospect."

Knies' performances have garnered attention, with analysts noting his high ceiling and potential to become a core member of the Maple Leafs. His ability to perform in high-pressure situations and contribute significantly to team success has solidified his reputation as a rising star. According to the Hockey News:

"The 22-year-old forward has five goals and one assist to begin the year, skating alongside Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. It's a trio that's worked well for Toronto since Knies arrived in the organization in 2023."

In summary, Matthew Knies' combination of physicality, skill, versatility, and continuous development has propelled him into the spotlight as a "dark horse rising" in the NHL. His trajectory suggests a promising future as a key contributor to his team's success.

Check out our quick-hit video below on YouTube for a more interactive walkthrough.

Summary

In this week's edition, we took a sampling of young NHL players with about two seasons of play under their belt. We ran a comparison, using Connor Bedard as the comparative darling. We found some interesting young guns like Marco Rossi and Connor Zary, but saw some interesting stats, thus potential, in Matthew Knies.

So, we spent the rest of the newsletter getting to know Matthew Knies. That is, where he grew up, his early career in the minors and at the University of Minnesota and is draft entry with the Toronto Maple Leafs. And from his early stats, we would argue he's a dark horse rising.

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