DFS Fantasy Hockey 101: Your Ultimate Kickoff Guide!

In this Edition

• Introducing the DFS Fantasy Hockey Series
• What is DFS Fantasy Hockey?
• Getting Started with DFS Fantasy Hockey
• Sample Strategies for DFS Fantasy Hockey

Introducing the DFS Fantasy Hockey Series

We've covered several topics that you could apply to the world of fantasy hockey; however, we've not directly covered building analytics specifically for DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports). And since DPH is about all things hockey analytics, we seek any opportunity to learn and share innovation we may find around hockey analytics. This is the overarching goal of this series.

In this multi-part series, we'll introduce you to the area of DFS fantasy hockey and explore the strategies, data and analytics that you can use to build a winning system. Our focus will be on the analytics to help you win, and we'll use the series to build out data and tools that you can use to manage your own DFS fantasy hockey lineups.

Fantasy Sports By the Numbers

The fantasy sports (and sports betting) industry has grown significantly over the past decade. According to the Angus Reid Group, to follow are some recent statistics around fantasy sports (data collected from a 12-month look-back from 2023 to 2024).

• 28% of Americans (roughly 74 million people) either played fantasy sports or bet on sports.
• Canada sees a smaller proportion of fantasy sports enthusiasts and bettors with 6.7 million.
• Out of the above population of fantasy players and sports bettors, roughly 55 million people in America and Canada played fantasy sports.
• There is a crossover rate of 50% in America between fantasy sports and sports betting.
• The NHL ranks 6th as the most popular fantasy sports and sports betting category with 6% growth equaling 23% of fantasy sports enthusiasts and bettors.

These numbers are impressive and translate into a significant opportunity for innovation and learning for sports analytics. And given the numbers (and what's at stake), we see the innovation in analytical and predictive approaches in fantasy sports and sports betting scenarios cross-applying well to sports analytics more broadly.

What Topics Will We Cover?

Over the next few weeks we'll build out a series of newsletters that will cover the following topics:

• Introducing DFS fantasy hockey and how to get started (this newsletter)
• Reviewing common strategies and statistics for DFS fantasy hockey
• Exploring a sample dataset to use for building DFS reports
• Exploring useful visualizations for the armchair analyst
• Creating a DFS Fantasy Hockey Summary report
• Creating a DFS Fantasy Hockey Predictive report
• Bringing it all together using Power BI

The goal for the series is to progressively build out a set of tools that you can use to analyze the historical and predictive value of players and teams – for both DFS fantasy hockey and your other armchair analyst needs.

What is DFS Fantasy Hockey?

Fantasy hockey is an online game where participants create virtual teams composed of real-life NHL players. These teams compete against others based on the statistical performance of the players in actual NHL games. The goal is to accumulate the most points throughout the NHL season based on specific scoring categories.

DFS is intriguing for those interested in hockey analytics because it provides a platform where statistical analysis, probability, and predictive modeling directly influence outcomes. As a sports or hockey analytics expert, there are techniques that you'd use in fantasy hockey that are also used in other areas. We've listed a few examples below.

• Data-driven decision making: DFS relies heavily on analyzing player and team statistics to make informed decisions. Metrics like Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xG), and Power Play efficiency are important to determine which players to select for a given day.
• Predictive modeling: Forecasting player performance based on historical data and current trends is a key aspect of DFS. Those interested in analytics can build models to predict outcomes, making fantasy hockey a practical application of their skills.
• Dynamic updates: The nature of DFS means that data is continuously evolving. New information on player injuries, line combinations, and matchups comes in regularly, requiring constant analysis and adjustment. This dynamic environment is ideal for those who enjoy working with real-time data.
• Risk and reward: Analytics enthusiasts appreciate the challenge of balancing risk and reward. In DFS, choosing between high-variance players (who might score big or not at all) versus consistent performers requires a deep understanding of probability and statistical variance.

Now if you're not a DFS enthusiast, but are here because you want to learn, then all is not lost. Below are what you should expect to take away to cross-apply to the more general area of hockey analytics.

• Team and player performance: A DFS fantasy hockey dashboard provides an overview of player and team statistics, helping you understand how players perform in various scenarios (e.g., home vs. away, power play vs. even strength, and so on).
• Trends and comparisons: Visualizations such as trend lines or bar charts can make it easy to spot patterns, like a player’s recent improvement or a team's dominance in certain areas, without needing deep statistical knowledge.
• Game predictions: For someone who may not play DFS but enjoys watching hockey, a dashboard can highlight games or players worth watching based on expected performance. For example, a non-enthusiast might use the dashboard to decide which game to watch by seeing which matchups are likely to be high-scoring or feature star players.
• Understanding the game: By displaying analytics such as shot attempts, possession metrics, and player usage, the dashboard can help non-enthusiasts gain a deeper understanding of the game, making their viewing experience more enjoyable and informed.
• Simplified insights: A dashboard can present complex analytics in a user-friendly way, with simplified insights like “Player X is on a hot streak” or “Team Y is struggling on defense.” This allows non-enthusiasts to engage with hockey on a more casual level, using the dashboard as a tool to enhance their general knowledge of the sport.

In short, whether you're a DFS enthusiast looking for some analytical pointers and tools or a student of hockey analytics looking to broaden your hockey analytics knowledge, you will get something out of this series.

Getting Started with DFS Fantasy Hockey

Fantasy hockey comes in several different formats, each offering a unique way to engage with the NHL season. Below are some examples of the type of fantasy hockey available to consumers.

• Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) – DFS is a short-term version of fantasy hockey where contests last just one day or one week, and you draft a new team for each contest.
• Season-long fantasy hockey – This is the traditional format where players draft a team at the beginning of the NHL season and manage that team throughout the entire season.
• Keeper or dynasty leagues – A variation of season-long fantasy hockey where teams carry over some or all of their players from one season to the next.
• Playoff fantasy hockey – Playoff fantasy hockey is a shorter version of season-long fantasy hockey that takes place during the NHL playoffs.

Each sports fantasy platform offers different types and categories of fantasy hockey. For example, in this series we'll use DraftKings as the example platform for fantasy hockey, and they run different DFS contest types.

DraftKings defines DFS as follows:

Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) mirrors season-long fantasy sports but condenses it into a shorter, more sweat-inducing format. Heart-throttling contests range from a day to a week depending on the sport. Competitors draft a player roster and those athletes earn points based on their in-game performance. Sweat the sweat each and every play. Test your skills with friends or with other fans nationally and let victory chase you for a change.

Yeah, I know right? Pretty damn intense! But, if you boil it down, here are the key characteristics for DFS.

• DFS contests last only one day or one week, with no season-long commitment.
• Each contest has a new draft, with no carryover from one contest to another.
• DFS focuses on short-term matchups, making it highly dynamic and fast-paced.
• DFS offers immediate cash prizes, making it a more gambling-oriented version of fantasy sports.

Now from an analytics perspective, the key takeaway is that you need to stay on top of your picks day-to-day during the hockey season. Each contest will have picks for you to choose, so you'll need some data around those picks, so you can maximize your winnings. Thus, a daily refresh on player and goalie statistics are important, trending is key for historical performance, and forecasting helps you discover opportunities.

Getting Started with DraftKings

According to the Angus Reid Group, the following represent the major fantasy sports and betting platforms out there today. You can clearly see that DraftKings is a key player in the industry – hence our focus on them in this series.

So, let's walk through how you can get started with DFS using DraftKings.

Getting started with DFS on DraftKings involves a series of steps that include setting up your account, understanding the platform, and making informed choices in your contests. Here’s a step-by-step guide.

Create a DraftKings Account

Creating your DraftKings account requires two steps: 1) signing up for a DraftKings account and 2) depositing funds.

To sign up for your DraftKings:

• Visit the DraftKings website (or download the mobile app).
• Create an account by providing basic information such as your email, username, and password.
• Optionally, verify your identity, depending on your location.

To deposit funds: 

• Log into your account after you create it.
• Click the Deposit button.

• Select a method of payment and deposit some money.

DraftKings offers various deposit methods, including credit/debit cards, PayPal, and bank transfers. Often, there are welcome bonuses or deposit match offers for new users.

Now that you've set up your account and deposited some money, it's time to familiarize yourself with the platform.

Getting Familiar with the DraftKings Platform

DraftKings offers fantasy sports and betting across many sports. Generally speaking, you can explore the web site (or app) by clicking through the active links on the site.

One of the first areas to explore on the site is the Lobby, which is where you'll find all available contests. Here, you can browse through different contest types, such as GPPs (guaranteed prize pools), cash games, 50/50s, and head-to-heads.

Also, note that you shouldn't jump into the DraftKings site and start playing with seasoned, advanced competitors; you progress up to the advanced contest types the more you play. For example, if you're new to DraftKings DFS, you should check out the Beginner contest types to see what they offer, engage in those contests and then progress to more advanced contests.

Also, you'll want t0 familiarize yourself with DraftKings' specific scoring rules for NHL. For example, points are awarded for goals, assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, and more. Goalie stats are also important, with points given for wins, saves, and shutouts. We'll address this more throughout the series because you'll want to create and track analytics that inform your decisions around this point system.

When you've completed exploring the above, you're ready to select a contest.  

Selecting a Contest

As mentioned above, you can check out the Lobby or a specific sport or league link on the site to check out the available contests. You can then filter for specific contest types (e.g., Beginner, Casual, Tournament, etc.). Decide whether you want to enter a large tournament, a smaller cash game, or something in between. Each contest type has different levels of risk and reward.

Contests come with varying entry fees, from free contests to high-stakes tournaments. Choose one that fits your budget and experience level. If you're just beginning, then stick to the DFS contests and Beginner contest type. You'll then be able to draft the lineup for that specific contest.

Drafting Your Lineup

In DFS, you’ll need to draft a lineup of players within a salary cap. Each player has a salary based on their expected performance. In NHL DFS, you typically select centers, wingers, defensemen, and a goalie. Again, we're out of season for the NHL right now, but the below is a similar view (PGA Tour) of available players on the left-hand side that you would select and add into your Lineup (on the right-hand side).

In DFS, this is where your knowledge of a) the DFS scoring system and b) the players and their historical and potential performance are critical. Having a good set of analytics at your fingertips will be important here because you can think through your strategies and then evaluate who to pick for that contest. Your goal should be to have a good tracking and analytics system that leads you to good decisions so you can assemble the best possible lineup to score the most points – and of course to work across a continual improvement cycle throughout the season by developing your own strategy and system to win.

Lastly, you’ll need to find a balance between star players and value picks to stay under the salary cap. Use your analytics, research fantasy hockey websites and any other tools available to identify high-upside players who may be undervalued. For example, use sites like Daily Faceoff, Left Wing Lock, and Natural Stat Trick to stay updated on line combinations, injuries, and matchup stats. Together with your own analytics, this additional research will help you make informed decisions when drafting your lineup. We'll address this more when discussing strategies, but consider stacking players who play on the same line or power play unit to maximize your scoring potential if that line has a big game.

After you've completed making your decisions, your next step is to submit your lineup.

Submitting Your Lineup

After building your lineup, review it to ensure all players are playing, especially if there are late-breaking injury reports. Once satisfied, submit your lineup to enter the contest. Depending on the contest, you may have the option to make last-minute swaps if there’s breaking news about a player’s status before game time.

During the games, you can monitor your lineup’s performance in real-time. DraftKings provides live scoring updates so you can see how you’re stacking up against the competition. And after the contest, review your lineup’s performance. Analyze what worked and what didn’t, and adjust your strategy for future contests.

The final step here is to think through your winnings strategy.

Winnings Strategy

Every investment requires a good withdrawal and reinvestment strategy. For example, if you invest in a dividend-bearing ETF, you likely reinvest the dividends to continue your investment cycle. In DFS, if you win you can withdraw your winnings directly to your bank account. DraftKings also allows you to use your winnings to enter future contests.

However, be sure to have a strategy here. For example, if you build a strategy with a system resulting in winning decisions, then you can profit from playing DFS. If you get to a point where you are consistently winning and profiting from DFS, then you likely want to think through a strategy that splits your profit and puts a portion of those winnings into a bank account and a portion reinvested into future contests. Many players reinvest their winnings to continue playing and increasing their chances of winning larger prizes over time. 

By following these steps, you can get started with DFS on DraftKings and begin competing in NHL fantasy hockey contests. The key is to continuously refine your strategy, have a good system for player and team analytics, stay updated on player news, and use the available tools and resources to make data-driven decisions. Also, think through a system that assumes future profitability and then find the balance between moving a portion of profits "out of view" and maintaining a portion for reinvestment.

Sample Strategies for Winning DFS

Our second newsletter in this series will focus on mapping strategies to analytics. So, we wanted to leave off this week's newsletter with a sample set of strategies; a sort of look-ahead for you.

Competing well in NHL DFS requires a blend of strategic thinking, statistical analysis, and awareness of current events in the NHL. Here are a sampling of strategies that will help you get started in DFS.

Focus on Line Stacking

Line stacking involves selecting multiple players from the same line or power play unit on a single NHL team. This strategy capitalizes on the correlation between players who play together, as they are more likely to assist on each other's goals, leading to higher combined points. When a line has a big night, stacking can lead to more DFS points, especially if they are involved in multiple goals. This is particularly effective in high-scoring matchups or when a strong line is facing a weak defense.

Target Power Play Units

Power play units consist of players who get extra ice time during a team’s power plays. These situations often lead to higher scoring opportunities, making power play performers valuable DFS picks. Players on the top power play unit have increased chances to score or assist during power plays, which can make a big difference in DFS scoring. Target teams with strong power play percentages, especially when they face teams with poor penalty kills.

Analyze Matchups and Opponent Weaknesses

This strategy involves evaluating which teams or players are likely to have a favorable matchup. Consider factors like opponent’s defense, goaltending performance, and home/away splits. Identifying weak opponents or mismatches can lead to selecting players who are likely to perform well. For example, targeting skaters playing against teams that allow a lot of shots or goals can increase your chances of success.

Monitor Injury Reports and Line Changes

Staying updated with the latest injury news and lineup changes is crucial. This includes knowing who is injured, who is filling in, and how line combinations are affected. Injuries can lead to increased opportunities for lesser-known players who are now promoted to a scoring line or power play unit. These players can provide great value at a lower salary, allowing you to spend more on other star players. 

Target Winning Goalies

Goalies earn significant points for wins in most DFS scoring systems, so targeting goalies from teams that are likely to win is important. Look for matchups where the goalie’s team is heavily favored. Also, look for goalies who are likely to face a high volume of shots, as more saves can lead to higher DFS points. However, balance this with the risk of allowing too many goals. And consider the opponent’s offensive strength. A goalie facing a high-volume shooting team that struggles to convert those shots into goals can rack up saves without being overwhelmed by goals against.

Again, these are a sampling of DFS strategies. In our next newsletter, we'll start to break these down along with how you should think about developing a system of analytics that can give you more data-driven decision making power.

Summary

This was the first newsletter in a multi-part series that focuses on DFS fantasy hockey. The goal of the series is to introduce you to the world of DFS fantasy hockey and progressively build out a system of analytics that can complement your existing process to give you more data-driven decision making.

In this newsletter, we introduced you to what is DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) fantasy hockey, walked through how you could get started using DraftKings, and introduced you to different DFS strategies.

In our next newsletter in this series, we'll deepen our exploration of the DFS strategies and discuss the type of analytics you'd want to curate when making decisions for your DFS lineup.

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