NHL Draft 25: What Teams Need Top Talent?
At a Glance
- Top talent as ranked by NHLe.
- Top ten teams in the first round draft.
- Mapping top teams and top talent.
Introduction
This is the third newsletter in our multi-part series exploring the Draft 25. Below are the first two posts in this series, where we introduced the series and then analyzed the top prospects from the Elite Prospect's Draft 25 Prospectus.
In this week's post, we're going to focus on the top talent in EP's consolidated ranking and rank the prospects by the NHLe metric and map them to a sample of teams in the first round draft.
Top Ten Ranked by NHLe
Below are the top ten incoming prospects ranked by NHLe. As we noted in an earlier newsletter, the NHLe ranking is different from the EP ranking – which considers a broader array of information and data. However, the NHLe is an indication of NHL readiness, so we wanted to use it in this analysis.
We included the original EP ranking (RANKING) in this view, so you can see that sorting by NHLe begins to bring other prospects into the fold – such as Kindel and Reschny.
We've simplified the analysis here to NHL-ready point production, and if the numbers bear out these prospects could be decent players in the first round. But before we get to match-making, let's check out the top ten teams in the first round of Draft 25.
Top Ten Teams in First Round Draft
Below are the top ten teams that are listed in the first round of the 2025 draft. Each of these teams has struggled in some way in the 2024-2025 season, thus will be looking for different ways to shore up their teams in the 2025-2026 season.
We wanted to calibrate and compare the teams, so we created an Offense and Defense composite metric. Each metric was calculated using different stats and then normalized to range from 0 to 100 (lower numbers are bad and higher numbers are good). The Offense metric included Goals For per Game, Power Play Percent, and Shot Percent. The Defense metric included Goals Against per Game, Penalty Kill Percent and Save Percent.
We created the metric for each team and below are showing it for the top ten teams in the 1st round draft. And while relatively simple, you can begin to see how you can take a balanced composite metric and use it to gauge strengths and weaknesses for these teams.
For example, the New York Islanders are stronger in defense than in offense. So, as the first one out of the gate, they'll need to decide if they go for Matthew Schaefer (the top defensive prospect) or Michael Misa (the top offensive prospect). As you evaluate each team against the incoming prospects (and their respective strengths and weaknesses), you can begin to see where a prospect could benefit a team's roster (either at the NHL level or in their minor league teams to prepare them).
Mapping Top Talent to First Round Teams
With the ten teams in the first round now summarized, we can turn to the fun part: mapping potential prospects to these teams. In the next view, you can see we've:
- listed out the first ten teams in the 1st round of the draft;
- listed their Offense and Defense metrics (with a heatmap as a visual aid);
- called out the greater need based on the scores;
- and then listed a prospect who we found interesting.
So, why did we choose these prospects for these teams?
Here’s a team-by-team summary explaining our reasoning for why we mapped a prospect to a team.
New York Islanders (1st Overall)
Michael Misa: This choice may be counter-intuitive given the hype around Matthew Schaefer; however, the Islanders are weak offensively. Misa is an elite offensive producer (2.06 PTSPG, 0.618 NHLe), providing the Islanders with a dynamic scoring threat who can upgrade their forward depth.
San Jose Sharks (2nd Overall)
Matthew Schaefer: The Sharks are "in the tank" defensively and offensively, so for us it felt right that an offensive defenseman could help them rebuild towards competitiveness. Schaefer is the top-ranked defenseman with strong offensive instincts (1.29 PTSPG) and solid transition play. He addresses the Sharks’ long-term need for a cornerstone blueliner.
Chicago Blackhawks (3rd Overall)
Radim Mrtka: Mrtka offers upside as a puck-moving defenseman with strong passing instincts (0.744 APG). He complements the offensive core being built around Bedard, balancing the roster’s backend. And can we just say, this guy has the scariest name among the top prospects and is 6'6" and 216 lbs to boot? Yeah, there's a lot to this guy.
Utah Hockey Club (4th Overall)
Porter Martone: We really like this guy. Martone combines size with skill and brings a dual-threat game, posting 1.72 PTSPG, 1.3 PIMPG and a 0.516 NHLe. His high-end playmaking fills Utah's need for a top-six forward and power play catalyst. We believe he is a top option here mixing scoring and grit – a rare combination.
Nashville Predators (5th Overall)
Caleb Desnoyers: Desnoyers is ranked 8th in EP's ranking, but his NHLe scored higher than others. He's a well-rounded forward with strong production who brings scoring depth and versatility, something the Predators need to support their aging core. Desnoyers also delivers excellent two-way play: 1.50 PTSPG, NHLe 0.405, and responsible discipline.
Philadelphia Flyers (6th Overall)
Jackson Smith: Smith adds size, composure, and offensive upside from the blue line (0.632 APG). He fits the Flyers’ rebuilding timeline and helps reinforce their transition game.
Boston Bruins (7th Overall)
Jake O'Brien: O'Brien is a steady offensive contributor (1.49 PTSPG) with a high hockey IQ. He helps fill the Bruins’ long-term forward pipeline as their veteran core ages out.
Seattle Kraken (8th Overall)
Logan Hensler: This pick may seem strange because Hensler was ranked 18th by EP. However, he's a reliable and mobile defenseman with solid NCAA production for a team that is a bit lower in the defense department. Hensler brings stability to Seattle’s defensive depth chart, complementing their offensively inclined D prospects.
Buffalo Sabres (9th Overall)
Kashawn Aitcheson: Aitcheson is another prospect in the top 25 so may be counter-intuitive, but he's a physical and defensively sound blueliner with strong two-way metrics. We think he adds grit and shutdown potential to Buffalo’s emerging young core.
Anaheim Ducks (10th Overall)
Anton Frondell: We also really like this guy. Frondell brings finesse and vision from the European leagues (0.862 PTSPG). He gives Anaheim a skilled forward with upside, balancing their growing pool of defensive prospects.
In summary, each of the above teams in the first round stands to gain from the top ten prospects (by NHLe). For example:
- Teams short on defense (e.g., Sharks, Blackhawks, Sabres) should aim for Schaefer, Mrtka, Smith, Hensler or Aitcheson.
- Those needing scoring punch (e.g., Islanders, Predators, Ducks) would benefit from Misa, Martone, Frondell, or O’Brien.
- Clubs wanting two-way forward depth (e.g., Utah, Bruins) should lean toward O'Brien or Desnoyers.
Summary
This was the third in our Draft 25 series, where we explore the incoming prospects for this year's NHL drafts. You can find our first two posts here:
In this week's newsletter, we focused on the top ten prospects (ranked by NHLe representing their Points per Game production), reviewed the first ten teams in the first round draft through an Offense and Defense metric, and then mapped the top prospects to these ten teams.
Some of our picks were counter-intuitive because we focused on each team's weakness (summarized by the Offense/Defense scores). But, these picks also highlight some of the underdogs in the Draft 25.
In our next newsletter, we'll focus on our armchair scout dashboard, which will provide several reports for you to use to prep for Draft 25.
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