Winning DFS Strategies & Stats to Crush Fantasy Hockey
In this Edition
- DFS Fantasy Hockey Series Recap
- Conceptualizing your DFS Strategy
- Introducing the DraftKings Scoring System
- Examples of Winning DFS Strategies
- Mapping Statistics to DFS Strategies
DFS Fantasy Hockey Series Recap
This is Week 2 in our six-week newsletter series on Winning in DFS Fantasy Hockey using Analytics. In the first edition, we covered the following topic:
In this week's edition, we'll introduce you to the basic DraftKings scoring system, walk through a set of strategies to improve your DFS play and map statistics to those strategies. The goal of this week is to get you thinking more about pulling a thread through the scoring system to strategy to statistics, so you can create your own analytics-based system to help you win at DFS fantasy hockey.
Conceptualizing your DFS Strategy
You either have or will develop your own approach to winning at DFS, but if you don't have one yet let's start with the most basic elements of a simple DFS system, which are 1) scoring, 2) strategy and 3) statistics. These elements are illustrated below in a way where one leads to the other – so scoring leads to a defined strategy which is supported by specific statistics.
Scoring represents the specific scoring system for your DFS platform. Each platform varies in terms of what points are awarded given a particular event (e.g., shots on goal, goals, assists, blocked shots, saves, etc.). For the DFS platform you target, you must understand the underlying scoring system.
After you understand the scoring system, you can then develop a strategy to maximize the points you win. Arguably, it's okay to have a strategy that is simple to start out with that then evolves over time; this gives you a runway to learn and adapt your system to the game and platform.
But scoring and strategy alone are not enough; you should also have a set of statistics (and analytics) that you are tracking that inform your strategy. These could be third-party tools or websites that you use as research, it could be your own tools and reports you build, or a mix of both.
In this series, we advocate for the mix of both. It's rare to get everything you need in one report or dashboard, so setting up the scores and strategy and then mapping statistics (or analytics) to the strategy and having additional resources that you use to research is a well-rounded system.
Introducing the DraftKings Scoring System
DraftKings has different NHL game styles, e.g. NHL Classic, NHL Tiers, and so on. In general, scoring is consistent across these game styles (e.g., points for goals, assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, and goalie stats). However, differences arise across the formats, for example, the Showdown format, where the captain gets a 1.5x multiplier, or Arcade Mode, where certain actions may earn more points compared to Classic or Tiers formats.
That said, the premise of DFS is straightforward: you pick a lineup that conforms to a salary cap that will win the most amount of points possible for that day. DraftKings DFS scoring for fantasy hockey involves both gaining and losing points based on the performance of players during a game. So, be sure to understand how you can accumulate points and where points will be deducted; this will impact your lineup decisions.
Below is a breakdown of how points are awarded and deducted within the DFS contests.
Skaters
For skaters, there are several different points that are awarded for different events. For example:
- Goals: +8.5 points
- Assists: +5 points
- Shots on Goal: +1.5 points
- Blocked Shots: +1.3 points
- Power-Play Points: +1 point (for goals and assists while on the power play)
- Short-Handed Points: +2 points (for goals and assists while on the penalty kill)
- Hat Trick Bonus: +3 points (for scoring three or more goals in a single game)
- Overtime Goal Bonus: +1.5 points (for goals scored in overtime)
- Shootout Goal Bonus: +1.5 points (for goals scored during the shootout)
Goalies
A more narrow point system drives the scoring for goalies, which is listed below.
- Wins: +6 points
- Saves: +0.7 points per save
- Goals Against: -3.5 points per goal allowed
- Overtime Loss: +2 points (for a loss in overtime or shootout)
- Shutout Bonus: +4 points (if the goalie does not allow any goals during regulation and overtime)
Penalties
You need to be watchful for players that may get a higher number of penalties because DraftKings penalizes you.
- Penalty Minutes: -1 point per penalty minute
Miscellaneous
A couple of other notes to consider are as follows:
- No Points for Plus/Minus: Unlike some other fantasy hockey leagues, DraftKings does not award or deduct points for a player's plus/minus rating.
- No Points for Hits or Faceoff Wins: DraftKings does not include these stats in their scoring system.
These elements form the core of DraftKings DFS scoring for fantasy hockey, allowing players to accumulate points based on the real-world performance of their selected athletes. Success in DraftKings DFS hockey often requires careful consideration of these scoring elements when selecting your lineup.
Examples of Winning DFS Strategies
In the first newsletter in this series, we presented a set of sample strategies you might implement for your DFS fantasy hockey. This initial list was meant to get you thinking, so this week we'll delve more deeply into specific DFS strategies and talk through how and why they work when playing on the DraftKings platform. We'll also reference experts who have implemented them.
The strategies we'll cover this week are as follows:
- Line stacking
- High Shot Volume Players
- Player Injuries
Let's take a look at each strategy, weigh it against the DraftKings platform and provide some evidence for its success with real-world fantasy professionals.
Line Stacking
Line stacking involves selecting multiple players from the same line or power play unit on a single team. The idea is that if one player scores, the other players on the line are likely to assist, leading to multiple players scoring points simultaneously.
DraftKings awards points for goals, assists, and power-play points, among others. By stacking players from the same line, you maximize the potential for these correlated points, as a goal often involves multiple players from the same line.
DFS expert Jonathan Bales, co-founder of FantasyLabs, has advocated for line stacking as a critical strategy in NHL DFS. He’s highlighted how stacking the top line of a high-scoring team can provide a significant edge. Bales has consistently ranked at high levels in DFS tournaments using this strategy, often placing in the top tiers of large GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools). His success with stacking is well-documented in his DFS strategy books and articles on FantasyLabs.
High Shot Volume Players
Focus on selecting players who consistently generate a high number of shots on goal. Shots on goal are a reliable way to accumulate points, and high-volume shooters also have a better chance of scoring. For example, DraftKings awards 1.5 points per shot on goal. Players who shoot frequently not only contribute to your point total with each shot but also increase their odds of scoring goals, which carry even more weight in DFS.
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), a well-known DFS pro, has frequently emphasized the importance of targeting high-volume shooters in his lineup construction. He often looks for players who take a lot of shots but may be underpriced due to recent scoring droughts. Jennings has won multiple DFS championships across various sports, including NHL, by leveraging this strategy. His focus on shot volume has been a consistent theme in his advice and has led to several big wins in DraftKings contests.
Injuries
Monitor the NHL injury reports and starting lineup announcements closely, and use DraftKings’ late swap feature to adjust your lineup based on last-minute changes. This can involve swapping in backup goalies or players moving up in the lineup due to injuries.
Late swaps allow you to replace inactive or downgraded players with active ones who are likely to see increased ice time or opportunities. This can drastically improve your lineup’s performance, especially in GPPs where ownership of the newly promoted players might be low.
Al Zeidenfeld (AlSmizzle), a respected DFS expert, has frequently used the late swap feature to his advantage. He’s known for making last-minute adjustments that exploit unexpected lineup changes. Zeidenfeld has achieved numerous top finishes in DraftKings NHL contests by using late swaps to capitalize on injuries and changes that others might miss. His ability to adapt quickly to breaking news has set him apart in DFS tournaments.
Mapping Statistics to DFS Strategies
For each of the three aforementioned DFS strategies, you can map statistics to those strategies to create an analytically-driven system. This could be as simple as listing out some key statistics, creating an Excel spreadsheet, updating that spreadsheet on a daily basis, and then checking the stats against your strategies.
To build a spreadsheet or dashboard to support each of the DFS strategies mentioned, you'll need to collect specific statistics and create analytics that align with each strategy. Let's look at each of the three aforementioned strategies and map potential statistics to those strategies.
Line Stacking
A set of statistics and data that would help implement this strategy would be:
- Line Combinations: Current and historical data where players are playing together on the same line or power play unit.
- Line Production: Goals, assists, and points generated by each line.
- Time on Ice (TOI): Average ice time per line or per player when playing together.
- Power Play Opportunities: How often the line plays on the power play and their success rate.
Examples of analytics you'd want to build are as follows:
- Correlation Analysis: Analyze the correlation between the performance of players on the same line to identify high-performing stacks.
- Heatmaps: Visualize the performance of different lines, showing where they excel (e.g., power play vs. even strength).
- Line Matchup Analysis: Compare the line combinations against the opponent’s defensive lines to identify favorable matchups.
High Shot Volume Players
A set of statistics and data that would help implement this strategy would be:
- Shots on Goal (SOG): Individual player shot statistics, including average shots per game.
- Shooting Percentage: Player shooting accuracy, which can help identify if they are likely to regress to the mean.
- Shot Attempts (Corsi/Fenwick): Advanced metrics to assess overall shot attempts, including blocked or missed shots.
- Opponent Shot Suppression: Opponent team stats on how well they limit shots against.
Examples of analytics you'd want to build are as follows:
- Shot Volume Trend Analysis: Track and visualize the shot volume of players over time to identify trends or hot streaks.
- Player vs. Opponent Matchup: Compare player shot volume against the opponent’s ability to suppress shots.
- Expected Goals (xG) Analysis: Use xG to predict the likelihood of a player converting their shots into goals, combining shot volume with shot quality.
Injuries
A set of statistics and data that would help implement this strategy would be:
- Injury Reports: Pre-game and real-time updates on player injuries and availability.
- Starting Lineup Announcements: Confirmed lineups, including last-minute changes.
- Backup Player Performance: Historical performance data on players stepping into new roles due to injuries.
- Line Changes Impact: Data on how line combinations change due to injuries and how those changes impact performance.
Examples of analytics you'd want to build are as follows:
- Real-Time Alerts: Set up notifications for when injury news or lineup changes are announced.
- Player Impact Analysis: Estimate the potential impact of a player moving up in the lineup (e.g., from third line to first line) due to an injury.
- Performance Projections: Adjust projections based on last-minute changes to reflect the new expected performance of affected players.
Hopefully, this gives you a sense for how you can begin mapping scores to strategies to statistics. We'll run through the same mapping exercise in our next newsletter for an additional set of strategies and statistics.
Check out our YouTube quick-hit video below.
Summary
This was the second newsletter in a multi-part series on DFS fantasy hockey, specifically focused on the DraftKings platform. In this week's newsletter, we introduced a DFS system that maps scoring to strategies to statistics.
We introduced you to three specific DFS strategies (Line Stacking, High Shot Volume Player, and Injuries) and then mapped specific statistics to each of these strategies. This was more of a conceptual exercise, but in future newsletters we'll take the step of creating a spreadsheet and dashboard that you can use to manage your DFS lineup picks. In effect, a tool to implement your DFS system.
In our next newsletter, we'll continue to explore winning DFS strategies and map additional statistics and analytics to them.
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